RC#49: Speakerodeon

published in Eastern Economist #434, May 28, 2002

For anyone who thought marathon dancing was a slow form of torture of poor Depression-era people, there’s a political marathon in the Verkhovna Rada these last two weeks, unwinding like a bad movie from the early years of talkies. You even have lots of funny-looking men running around like a 1920’s actor searching for his bow-lipped mistress in a hallway lined with identical doors.

            After fighting to get back the right to observe their lawmakers in action on radio and television, Ukrainians might be forgiven if they are less than thrilled to watch those programs now.

            Not three months ago, Ukrainians very cleverly eliminated 16 of the 22 “parties” balloting for spots in their legislature. They managed to off such wearing folks as the Progressive Socialists led by Ms. Natalia “The Witch” Vitrenko and the Greens under Mr. Vitaliy “Steelworks” Kononov. Not to mention a dozen shiny new clubs filled with friends of Mr. Kuchma.

            Given that last time, in 1998, the VR wasted two entire months s/electing its leadership, it seemed smart to reduce the number of different interest groups, so that the horse-trading might go a bit faster.

            So far, though, two weeks are stretching into three, with very little serious trading and no Speaker in sight.

            The most surprising – and disappointing – aspect of this bad movie is the performance of Viktor Yushchenko. Some of what’s happening could be deliberate efforts to discredit him. But too much of it is his own doing.

            Here’s the man most people in Ukraine, locals and foreigners alike, see as the Great White Hope against a sea of Red Directors.

            Here’s the man who took over the National Bank of Ukraine in spring 1993 and gradually transformed it into a reasonably respectable central bank. He pulled the country through hyperiniflation by choking off massive currency emissions in 1994-5. He oversaw the introduction of a new national currency in 1996. And he helped the country pull through a major financial shock in 1998 that slaughtered the Russian rouble.

            Now Mr. Yushchenko can’t seem to get his priorities straight at all.

            He knew, when the count was in on April 1, that he had, at best, a moral mandate. But he had one.

            He knew who his likely bedfellows would be. If not ZaYedU, all he was left with were the Communists. There was no other group that could give him and his two closest supporters a majority. So he had to put together a deal his rank and file would accept.

            He also must have known that the longer the Speaker selection process went on, the more likely that independents would drift over to his opponents. So he had to put together a deal that would go through with very few hitches.

            In other words, Mr. Yushchenko had his work cut out for him.

            But that’s what he had to expect, as the leader of the first post-independence political organization that is not tied to the past or to the president. And even more so if he has any presidential aspirations.

            So what are all these wretched propositions that he keeps dragging out like half-shorn sheep to the slaughter?

            First Mr. Yushchenko talks about voting for Mr. Lytvyn as Speaker. Then he talks about voting for Communist Adam Martyniuk as Speaker. “Over my dead body,” says 82-year-old Mrs. Slava Stetsko, whose husband fought the communists with Stepan Bandera.

            Then Mr. Yushchenko says, “Since we can’t get consensus on three candidates, let’s try to put together a slate with 53 different posts at the same time. And for good measure, let’s amend the Constitution.”

            Next there’s a vote and nearly 100 ballots disappear and Mr. Yushchenko and his strange bedfellows are suddenly pointing fingers at each other and crying foul.

            What funny mushrooms has Mr. Yushchenko been served for breakfast?

            Meanwhile, Mr. Lytvyn is getting ruder. Mr. Medvedchuk is getting ruder. Mr. Zadorozhniy is getting ruder. They’re just smoking cigarettes and watching Mr. Yushchenko trip over his own shoelaces.

            The only things on Mr. Yushchenko’s side right now are democratic process and a big chunk of the Ukrainian population. But if he fails to use the former effectively and boldly, he will rapidly lose the latter.

            If Mr. Yushchenko thought Mr. Medvedchuk was a vengeful sort [see “A site to behold” RC #415)], then, in the person of Volodymyr Lytvyn, we are talking about a fish of a much smellier sort.

            Mr. Lytvyn is a nebbish. Moreover, everybody knows it. But he’s also got the personality of a pit bull, and he won’t let go of the Speaker position until a tank runs over him. (Don’t anybody get any ideas, there!)

            The best way to deal with Mr. Lytvyn is to put him in, with two very smart, strong and savvy people as his deputies. And to vote non-confidence in him as soon as possible. “Out, damned silver-haired slimeball!”

            Mr. Yushchenko, get yourself some good advisors. No, let me rephrase that. Get yourself one good advisor, preferrably not your old Rukh buddies, not your charming wife, not some sleazy businessman, not a politician – if at all possible.

            Someone outside the whole mess. Someone really sharp who really cares about this country.

            Then, listen to him or her.

            Really listen.

            And do what is necessary to keep the faith of those who voted for you on Mar. 31. •

–from the notebooks of Pan O.